Written by Han Bing Since the joint military strike by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, the situation in the Middle East has rapidly intensified, and its repercussions on football have swiftly extended from the Middle East to the World Cup. Previously, the global football community focused on whether Iran could still participate in the World Cup starting in June. However, on March 6, Iraqi media revealed that due to the Middle East situation, there are doubts about Iraq's ability to participate in the World Cup intercontinental playoff scheduled for March 31.

On March 4, FIFA sent a letter to the Iraqi Football Association confirming that the World Cup intercontinental playoff at the end of March would proceed as planned. On March 6, the Iraqi Football Association notified FIFA that due to Iraq's closure of its airspace and safety concerns over land travel, the Iraqi team cannot participate in the World Cup intercontinental playoff held in Mexico on March 31. However, the Iraqi Football Association is not withdrawing from the competition but hopes FIFA can provide a solution. FIFA will hold an emergency meeting soon to discuss measures to address the Iraqi team's participation issue.

What Path Lies Ahead for the Iraqi Team?

Due to Iran's continuous attacks on U.S. military bases within Iraq and Iraqi militia forces joining the conflict, Iraq's domestic security situation has deteriorated sharply. The Iraqi government announced the closure of its airspace on February 28, and the Iraqi Football Association received information that it might last at least four weeks. On March 6, Iraqi Football Association executive Zamili stated at a press conference that the Iraqi team confirmed it cannot participate in the World Cup intercontinental playoff on March 31 as scheduled. The reason is that Iraq's airspace closure is likely to continue for four weeks, preventing about half of the Iraqi national team's domestic players from leaving via civilian flights. The alternative plan of traveling by bus north into Turkey and then flying to Mexico is untenable because U.S. military bases in Iraq are located in the north, where local militias are also continuously creating explosive incidents. The bus journey would take up to 25 hours and pose significant safety risks.

Besides domestic players being unable to travel, Iraqi team coach Arnold is also stranded in the UAE. Two weeks ago, he went to Dubai to observe two Iraqi internationals playing in the UAE league, Bayesh and Mohammed Ali. Unexpectedly, after an Iranian attack on a U.S. base in the UAE, the country closed its airspace, preventing his departure. Additionally, Iraq's medical team is stuck in Qatar, also unable to determine an exact arrival date in Mexico.

Moreover, Mexico does not have an embassy in Iraq, and its visa offices in Qatar and the UAE have closed. The entire Iraqi team cannot even obtain visas to enter Mexico. Previously, due to the local situation, the U.S. closed its embassy and consulate in Iraq, as well as embassies in neighboring Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Consequently, the Iraqi team cannot obtain U.S. visas and had to cancel pre-playoff training plans in Houston.

The Iraqi Football Association hopes FIFA can provide assistance to enable the Iraqi team to smoothly participate in the World Cup intercontinental playoff. On March 4 evening, a nationwide power grid failure in Iraq further worsened the situation. To maintain the competitive condition of domestic players, the Iraqi Football Association insists on continuing the league, unlike Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE which suspended their leagues. On March 7, there was a slight improvement: Dubai Airport in the UAE opened some flights, allowing Arnold to possibly leave soon. The Australian coach prefers returning to Iraq for preparation; if Iraq's airspace remains closed, he will return to Australia awaiting further news.

FIFA Still Waiting

The Iraqi Football Association hopes FIFA will quickly propose a solution, but the latter seems not rushed to decide. Iraqi media mentioned three possible solutions: first, postponing Iraq's match date to ensure the team can compete with its strongest squad. However, FIFA began selling intercontinental playoff tickets last week, meaning the match timing cannot be changed.

Second, stripping Iran's qualification and having Iraq directly replace them, with the UAE team substituting for Iraq in the intercontinental playoff. But FIFA currently insists on completing the playoff as originally scheduled. The third option is treating the Iraqi Football Association as forfeiting, allowing the UAE to replace Iraq in the playoff, or the winner of the Suriname vs Bolivia match on March 27 directly obtaining World Cup qualification. Clearly, the Iraqi Football Association does not wish FIFA to adopt the third option.

On March 6, Iran announced it would no longer attack neighboring countries unless attacked by them, a positive signal. Civilian flights in Qatar and the UAE are gradually resuming. French sports media SoFoot noted that even if Iraq continues closing civilian airspace, the Iraqi team could depart for the competition using military aircraft, as they did for the 2004 Athens Olympics. Despite the rushed行程 then, players even had only one set of kits requiring immediate washing after each match, Iraq ultimately reached the semifinals.

On March 9, Iraqi media disclosed FIFA suggested the Iraqi team travel by bus via land route through Turkey over 25 hours, but the Iraqi Football Association rejected it, applying to postpone the March 31 intercontinental playoff. Iraqi coach Arnold suggested scheduling it one week before the World Cup opening; the first round playoff between Suriname and Bolivia could proceed on March 26 as planned, with the winner facing Iraq in North America early June to determine qualification. But FIFA早已 determined not to alter the playoff schedule, as it would be unfair to other participating teams. The博弈 over the schedule is expected to yield a final outcome within this week.

FIFA still hopes Iraq participates, having recently approved the naturalization of Youssef Nasrawi, who plays for Bayern Munich's youth team, for Iraq. The 19-year-old Nasrawi is an attacking midfielder, currently loaned to Salzburg in Austria. Over the last eight months, 23 overseas players have been selected for Iraq's national team. However, taking the 23-man squad for the Asian playoff against the UAE last November as an example: key players including captain goalkeeper Jalal Hassan, defender Hashim, midfielders Karim and Abdulkarim, and forward Amin Hussein (5 main players), and substitutes goalkeeper Talib, Fadhil, defenders Younis, Yahya, Sadu, defensive midfielder Rashid, and forward Jawad (7 substitutes)—totaling 12 players—all come from the domestic league. If all absent, it significantly impacts team strength.

FIFA maintains close contact with the Iraqi Football Association to help the Iraqi team obtain entry visas for Mexico. But if the Iraqi government continues closing its airspace over the next three weeks, or Mexico cannot provide visa便利 for the Iraqi team, the World Cup intercontinental playoff may require临时 major adjustments. Consequently, the possibility of Iraq losing its qualification资格 grows increasingly larger.